Bitcoin Price Forecast 2026: Predicted Highs and Lows
While many analysts focus on predicting price peaks, this article, based on a report from Cointelegraph, takes a different approach. We’ll explore the possibility of a new downturn and estimate Bitcoin’s potential price floor using statistical models and historical data.
Of course, we will also forecast the likely price ceiling for Bitcoin within the current cycle. This analysis is designed to help you make more informed capital management decisions with a better understanding of the inherent risks.
Estimating Bitcoin’s Price Floor in a Bear Market
It is now clear to most investors, especially those who have weathered one or more “Crypto Winters,” that Bitcoin moves in roughly four-year cycles. Until 2022, many believed that Bitcoin’s price would always remain above its previous cycle’s peak.
This held true in 2011, 2014, and 2018. However, the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022 caused Bitcoin’s price to plummet to $15,000, breaking below the critical $20,000 threshold it had briefly touched in December 2017.
While everyone is trying to predict Bitcoin’s maximum price in the current cycle, which is likely to conclude around late October 2025, the research unit at Diaman Partners has attempted to estimate Bitcoin’s minimum price in 2026, should a market downturn occur in the coming months. Many experts speculate that Bitcoin’s cyclical phase is over and that we have now entered a new, more “mature” phase of stable growth.
There are many reasons to support this theory: the launch of spot ETFs in the US is attracting significant capital, institutional demand is rising, and investment firms and pension funds can now acquire Bitcoin (at least in the United States).
However, maintaining a skeptical, engineering-driven perspective, it is reasonable to believe that Bitcoin’s cycles will continue for years to come, albeit with less intensity. From a risk management standpoint, at the very least, the possibility of another bear market cannot be ignored.
The 200-Week Moving Average Model and Its Analysis
It is worth noting that the idea of using the robust model of the 200-week moving average comes from the highly credible computer scientist Adam Back. The corresponding chart shows that, except for the 2022 anomaly where the FTX collapse pushed prices lower than expected, the 200-week moving average has historically provided excellent support during price declines.
In the chart below, the red line illustrates the percentage difference between Bitcoin’s price and its 200-week average. The underlying concept is that this moving average acts as a support line, representing the maximum expected drop in a potential bear market.
Monte Carlo Simulation and Future Projections
An astute observer might argue that the move from a cycle’s peak to its bottom takes time. During this period, the moving average continues to rise, meaning the model likely overestimates the potential loss. This is a valid point. Looking at today’s values, with the average above $51,000, a 60% drop from current levels is probably an overestimation.
To project where the 200-week moving average might be in late 2026 (the estimated end of a potential bear market), Diaman Partners conducted a Monte Carlo simulation. This involved generating 1,000 randomized historical data series. The results indicate that there is only a 5% probability of Bitcoin being valued at less than $41,000 in December 2026. This would imply the price crossing below the moving average, which by then would be around $60,000.
If we consider the 5th percentile (represented by the red line in the chart below), the target price for the end of the bear cycle, as indicated by the 200-week moving average, would be approximately $60,000.
The Monte Carlo method is a computational algorithm that relies on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results. These methods are often used to simulate physical, mathematical, and economic systems.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin’s price continues its upward trend and only begins to decline in 2026, or if its path aligns with the broader Monte Carlo simulations, then the support level for the cycle’s bottom by the end of 2026 could be as high as $80,000.
By reverse-engineering from the potential price floor of $80,000 in 2026, we can project the maximum possible drawdown in the next bear market based on the peak price Bitcoin might reach in the coming months.
Given that the drawdowns have consistently decreased with each cycle (-91%, -82%, -81%, -75%), a future drop of around -69% appears reasonable. Therefore, a cycle peak of $260,000 by the end of 2025 may not be an impossible target.
This study is by no means investment advice, but rather an intellectual exercise to forecast a future that is entirely uncertain and unpredictable. The maximum and minimum values are based solely on models that are not guaranteed to materialize.
1. How low will Bitcoin go in the next crash?
Based on analyses using historical data and the 200-week moving average model, Bitcoin’s price floor in the next major crash or downturn could be around $60,000 to $80,000 by the end of 2026. This is predicted because the 200-week moving average has historically acted as a very strong support level during “Crypto Winters.”
2. How high can Bitcoin’s price go by 2025?
Using reverse-engineering models based on the potential price floor, the analysis projects that Bitcoin’s peak price in the current bull cycle could reach $260,000 by the end of 2025. This price target assumes that the next market drawdown will be less severe than previous ones, following historical trends.
